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Solution: 2019 Winter Final - 15

Author: Michiel Smid

Question

Consider a uniformly random permutation $a_1,a_2,a_3,a_4,a_5$ of the set $\{1,2,3,4,5\}$. Consider the events
  • A = "$a_1$ is odd",
  • B = "$a_5$ is even".
Which of the following is correct?
(a)
None of the above.
(b)
The events $A$ and $B$ are not independent.
(c)
All of the above.
(d)
The events $A$ and $B$ are independent.

Solution

  1. Let’s determine $ \Pr(A) $

    A occurs when $a_1$ is odd. There are 3 odd numbers in the set ${1,2,3,4,5}$, so there are 3 ways for $a_1$ to be odd.

    Therefore, $ \Pr(A) = \frac{3}{5} $

  2. Let’s determine $ \Pr(B) $

    B occurs when $a_5$ is even. There are 2 even numbers in the set ${1,2,3,4,5}$, so there are 2 ways for $a_5$ to be even.

    Therefore, $ \Pr(B) = \frac{2}{5} $

  3. Let’s determine $ \Pr(A \cap B) $

    $A \cap B$ occurs when $a_1$ is odd and $a_5$ is even.

    We choose 1 of the 3 odd numbers for $a_1$: $\binom{3}{1} = 3$.

    We choose 1 of the 2 even numbers for $a_5$: $\binom{2}{1} = 2$.

    Therefore, $|A \cap B| = 3 \cdot 2 = 6$.

    Therefore, $ \Pr(A \cap B) = \frac{6}{5!} = \frac{1}{20} $

  4. Profit

    Check if $A$ and $B$ are independent.

    $ \Pr(A \cap B) = \Pr(A) \cdot \Pr(B) $

    $ \frac{1}{20} = \frac{3}{5} \cdot \frac{2}{5} $

    $ \frac{1}{20} = \frac{6}{25} $

    Since $ \frac{1}{20} \neq \frac{6}{25} $, $A$ and $B$ are not independent.