Let’s make a table and see what the maximum value is
$ E(Z) = 1 \cdot \Pr(Z=1) + 2 \cdot \Pr(Z=2) + 3 \cdot \Pr(Z=3) + 4 \cdot \Pr(Z=4) $
$ E(Z) = 1 \cdot \frac{1}{16} + 2 \cdot \frac{3}{16} + 3 \cdot \frac{5}{16} + 4 \cdot \frac{7}{16} $
$ E(Z) = \frac{1}{16} + \frac{6}{16} + \frac{15}{16} + \frac{28}{16} $
$ E(Z) = \frac{50}{16} $
$ E(Z) = \frac{25}{8} $